2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide: Outfield (OF) Best Value Picks. Outfield (OF) Best Value Picks selections are based on a standard scoring system in mixed AL/NL fantasy baseball leagues for the 2011 season. Scoring system stats include: runs scored, homeruns, rbi, stolen bases, and batting average – (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG). AB = at bats during the 2010 season.
Outfield (OF) Best Value Picks selections are based on players who offer the best value at their likely draft positions in 2011 fantasy baseball drafts. These best value players typically include players who have a history of successful seasons in the MLB, and because of their history are somewhat safer and more reliable draft picks for fantasy baseball teams entering the 2011 season.
Top 10 – Outfield (OF) Best Value Picks 2011
Colby Rasmus – StL
The whole bickering with manager Tony LaRusa likely affected Rasmus’ production during the 2010 season, and yet Rasmus still tallied a very respectable 23 homeruns, 12 stolen bases, 85 runs scored, 66 rbi, and .276 batting average while taking swings at every spot in the Cardinals batting order last season. With an average ranking between the #25-40 spots among all fantasy baseball outfielders entering the 2011 season, Rasmus who tallied an outstanding 16 homeruns, 9 stolen bases, 51 runs scored, 42 rbi and .284 batting average before the all-star break (and before the bickering with LaRusa started) last season, could and should rekindle that type of stat production in 2011. Over the course of a full season, Rasmus could be looking at a 25-30 homerun, 15-20 stolen base, 90-100 runs scored, 70-90 rbi, and .280 plus batting average season in 2011. Now that is what you would call overall roto stats in any fantasy baseball league, not to mention this can easily be had for just a mid round OF draft pick in nearly all fantasy baseball leagues to begin the 2011 season.
2010 Stats: 464 AB, 85 R, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, .276 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 90 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB, .280 AVG
Drew Stubbs – Cin
Entering the 2011 season, it seems that Stubbs is nearly invisible in the eyes of numerous fantasy baseball mangers. Stubbs racks up 22 homeruns, 30 stolen bases, 91 runs scored and 77 rbi as a rookie in 2010, and he is being ranked and drafted on average (or in some cases even well after) the #20 spot among all fantasy baseball outfielders to begin the 2011 season. Even worse is the fact that some fantasy baseball managers consider Stubbs a sleeper entering the 2011 season! Are you serious? The guy hits 22 homeruns and steals 30 bases and you think he is a sleeper who no one knows about!?!? I honestly have no problem ranking Stubbs between the #10-15 spots among all fantasy baseball outfielders entering the 2011 season. If you are lucky enough to be in a seemingly backwards league where Stubbs is still available after 20 other outfielders have been drafted, then you can consider yourself one lucky fantasy baseball team.
2010 Stats: 514 AB, 91 R, 22 HR, 77 RBI, 30 SB, .255 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 100 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 40 SB, .270 AVG
Corey Hart – Mil
After a 31 homerun and 102 rbi season in 2010, Hart is simply not getting much love from fantasy baseball managers entering the 2011 season, as many simply see Hart as overrated and a bust waiting to happen in 2011. However having just turned 29 years old to start the 2011 season, Hart is no doubt in the prime of his career, and a drop off in stat production just does not seem that likely right now. Add in the fact that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder had down seasons in 2010, and Hart could actually improve upon is overall stats in 2011. Numbers in the range of 20-30 homeruns, 10-20 stolen bases, 80-100 rbi are definitely within reach, and considering that Hart is often drafted around the #25 OF in numerous fantasy baseball drafts, I challenge you to find a better OF2 for your fantasy baseball team entering the 2011. Think of it this way, if Jason Heyward were to tally 25-30 homeruns, 15 stolen bases and 90-100 rbi, you would think great! And yet Heyward is drafted a good 15 spots earlier among fantasy baseball outfielders than Hart, who no doubt offers the same type of stat potential, with Hart even being more proven and reliable than Heyward entering the 2011 season.
2010 Stats: 558 AB, 91 R, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 7 SB, .283 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 90 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB, .285 AVG
BJ Upton – TB
A once sky high rated name in fantasy baseball leagues a couple of years ago, Upton has slowly lost the hype while oddly enough improving his stats. Still just 26 years old for the 2011 season, Upton significantly increased his homerun hitting ability in 2010 while still maintaining his stolen base total. Finishing the 2010 season with 18 homeruns, 42 stolen bases, 89 runs scored and 62 rbi, Upton’s only major downfall is his batting average which rolled in at just .237. However an increase to just a .250 batting average is well within Upton’s reach for the 2011, and considering Upton is often drafted after fellow outfielders Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino in numerous fantasy baseball leagues to begin the 2011 season, I would gladly pass on those three OFs and take Upton a few picks later and get the same type of stat value with definite upside to boot.
2010 Stats: 536 AB, 89 R, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 42 SB, .237 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 85 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 40 SB, .265 AVG
Carlos Quentin – CWS
Following up a breakout season in 2008 that resulted in 36 homeruns and 100 rbi over just 480 at bats, Quentin has been a major disappointment for fantasy baseball teams the past two seasons. Yet oddly enough, Quentin still manages to rack up his huge power numbers, including a ridiculous 19 homeruns and 61 rbi over just 262 at bats before the all-star break during the 2010 season. More importantly for fantasy baseball teams, is the fact that Quentin’s stats are “quiet.” In other words, Quentin easy racks up homeruns and rbi, but no one talks about him because of his batting average that has been lagging the past two seasons. However with a ranking often between the #30-40 spot among all fantasy baseball outfielders entering the 2011 season, fantasy baseball teams will be hard pressed to find another 30 homerun and 80-100 rbi guy like Quentin as their OF3 for the 2011 season.
2010 Stats: 453 AB, 73 R, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 2 SB, .243 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 85 R, 35 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB, .270 AVG
Jason Bay – NYM
Yes we all expected a reduction in stats from Bay during the 2010 season as compared to his 2009 season.
However what we didn’t expect were nagging injuries to accompany Bay as well during the 2010 season, not to mention a near terrible Mets offensive and run producing lineup as well. Currently ranked between the #35-50 spots among all fantasy baseball outfielders entering the 2011 season, Bay is a former 3rd round pick in several 2010 fantasy drafts, who can now be drafted with a mid to late round pick entering the 2011 season. While a return to his previous 36 homerun and 119 rbi season in 2009 is unlikely for Bay in 2011, a return to the 20 plus homerun and 80 plus rbi plateau can absolutely be expected. Overall, Bay is a great value pick who is a proven power hitter and run producer that can be drafted as an OF3 in numerous fantasy baseball leagues to begin the 2011 season.
2010 Stats: 348 AB, 48 R, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB, .259 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 85 R, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 10 SB, .275 AVG
Brett Gardner – NYY
Maybe it is the fact that Gardner doesn’t offer a great deal of stats across the board, but as an OF3 on fantasy baseball teams who can often be drafted between the #35-50 pick, there is absolutely great value to be found in Gardner entering the 2011 season. 50 stolen bases and 100 runs scored is definitely within Gardner’s potential, and his batting average and rbi numbers won’t kill your fantasy baseball team either. And even more important is the upside with Gardner, considering the fact that if he would ever move to the leadoff spot in the Yankees lineup permanently during the 2011 season, then something in the range of 120 runs scored and a .300 batting average to go along with those 50 stolen bases could be in store. Not a bad haul in for an OF3 on any fantasy baseball team.
2010 Stats: 477 AB, 97 R, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 47 SB, .277 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 105 R, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 50 SB, .280 AVG
Magglio Ordonez – Det
After suffering a broken ankle last season, Ordonez’s 2010 season was essentially a washout. However he still managed to tally 12 homeruns, 59 rbi and a .303 batting average over just 323 at bats. Play that out over a 550-600 at bat season, and Ordonez could easily once again be topping the 20 homerun and 90 rbi plateau in 2011. Add in his career batting average of .312, and Ordonez seems like a near lock to tally another .300 batting average season in 2011. While Ordonez is not the sexy young guy pick with huge potential, he does offer fantasy baseball teams a reliable source of stats, and Ordonez can often be drafted after the top 50 outfielders taken in most fantasy baseball leagues entering the 2011 season. In other words, fantasy baseball teams are essentially getting a 20 homerun, 80 rbi and .300 batting average OF as a backup OF4. Now that is solid all around fantasy baseball value right there.
2010 Stats: 323 AB, 56 R, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 70 R, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 0 SB, .310 AVG
Tyler Colvin – ChC
As a rookie last season, Colvin did just about everything and even much more than what the Cubs expected from him entering the 2010 season. Breaking out with a 20 homerun season at just age 24, while only receiving part-time playing time, Colvin who can play all three outfield positions as well as first base, is one injury away from becoming an everyday starter in the Cubs lineup. Yet even if that permanent starting spot does not happen, Colvin could easily increase his at bats to around 450 during the 2011 season, a full 100 more at bats than what he tallied in 2010, as a near everyday starting utilityman. Currently drafted in only 20% of standard 12 team fantasy baseball leagues to begin the 2011 season, Colvin is a legitimate 20 homerun player with upside. If would not be impossible to think that Colvin could tally 20-25 homeruns and 10-15 stolen bases during the 2011 season. As a player who numerous fantasy baseball teams can draft with their last pick, Colvin offers excellent value with plenty of upside to boot!
2010 Stats: 358 AB, 60 R, 20 HR, 56 RBI, 6 SB, .254 AVG
2011 Stat Projections: 80 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .270 AVG
Adam Lind – Tor
Curtis Granderson – NYY
Lance Berkman – StL
For additional 2011 fantasy baseball rankings, articles, and draft tips, check out my blog at Hawk Fantasy Sports